Working Designs said there were only about 20,000 Turbo CD units in the U.S.
Exactly.
What? Why is Vic's estimate of ~20k each for the Turbo CD and Duo not a plausible estimate? Sure, I think it might have been slightly higher, but I would not believe numbers over 50k for the Turbo CD for sure, and I just don't think that the Duo did better. They put some effort into trying to sell Duos, but it bombed HARD. If you think it did much better than Vic's estimates, I don't think there is any evidence to support it. Sorry, but that "one million TOTAL for US TG16+CD+Duo sales" number is something I find the most likely estimate of US sales, with the TG16 being at least 90% of that total. Do you have any actual facts behind your opinion that you think the Turbo CD and/or Duo sold significantly better than Vic thought?
As for the TurboExpress, though, yeah, that one is an unknown... is that included in TG16 sales, or not? I have no idea. Haven't seen any sales estimates for it before, either. I doubt it sold huge though, not at its price; probably not beyond the tens of thousands.
I agree that a million TOTAL for TG-16 + TG-CD + TurboDUO is much more likely than 1.5-2 million figure that floats around.
Don't forget that companies are always playing around with numbers, and don't always report units actually sold to paying customers, but instead report number of units shipped to retail stores.
Anyway, I'm very conservative when it comes to estimating TG-16/DUO sales.
Don't forget that NEC especially, and later TTi, both manufactured way more than the market demanded initially and that it continued to be sold off officially through 2001. How many of those "official" figures do you think were calculated after 2001?
We've never had anything near solid evidence that TE/GT, LT, LaserActive, etc were included either. Judging by how common TE/GTs in particular are, their numbers alone must be high.
Don't forget that most rough figures have been shown to have been taken out of context, especially the "I think I heard once" type stuff. Like how a comment by Vic Ireland was not so long ago used as definitive proof for a very accurate sales figure of Turbo-CD units... unless you actually think it through for a second (most didn't).
The fact of the matter is that because of the time the 16-bit gen took place, we'll never have accurate sales numbers for Genesis and SNES. There wasn't any kind of definitive system in place to track this kind of stuff and the Turbo/PCE is all the more mysterious.
Console War enthusiasts are the ones who obsess over uncertain figures and like to spin them to favor the console they've affiliated themselves to.
I don't think TTi, and later TZD, sold too many DUO's.
An already niche market was now completely reduced to a handful of crazy bastards. Us. The TurboList. But most of us had the hardware already.
LaserActive? I'm not silly to suggest that a mere handful were ever sold. Period.
LT? Negligible, as well (in Japan).
TE? I'm afraid it wouldn't be a significant amount. Not significant to radically change any estimates, anyway. I feel that TE was certainly more popular than LA...but that's not saying much.
Agreed on all points, unfortunately, esteban. The LaserActive sold nothing, the TurboExpress okay-ish but not great, and the LT wasn't released here and in Japan sold nothing either.
And yeah, I know TTI/TZD sold lots of over-produced games, but systems? If you say that they didn't have many Duos, I believe you.
I still think Asahi Newspaper's 5.8 million global sales quote is probably accurate, or at least very close.
I checked again, and it appears that Famitsu's domestic Japanese numbers, 3.92 million HuCard systems and 1.92 million CD systems, puts Duos exclusively in the CD systems group. Searching for info about Duo sales in particular, I found this webpage which says that the Duo systems sold about one million (and that the CD-ROM ad-ons sold about one million, which fits the 1.92 figure well). That seems reasonable to me.
So that would mean that Japan has just under five million independently playable systems, just under two million of which can play CD-ROM games. Put that together with Asahi's figure and the US has somewhere around 1 million. That sounds reasonable to me.
Yeah, these numbers add up perfectly! That 900k number for US TG16 sales and under 100k for the TCD and Duo combined -- maybe 40k combined if we believe Vic, maybe a bit more if he was off by some, but certainly terrible.
it's probable that the pc engine units sold in japan was between 6-8 million on the basis that megadrive had installed user base of 3.5million ( distant third) in japan and based on accounts, pc engine was very popular and second to super famicom which had 17 million user installed base in japan but by references over the years, megadrive was a distant third in their home market, nowadays, even buying both consoles and games for megadrive from Asian countries and japan are not that common unlike pc engine and super famicom from online auctions and physical stores.
It's a fallacy to assume that the sales of the 2nd place contender lies right in the middle of the 1st and the 3rd. Nintendo walloped everybody back then in sales, both with the Famicom and the Super Famicom. This is obvious when looking in used game stores and Goodwill-style recycle stores. Nintendo stuff is everywhere.
Also, I think that in 89, 90 and 91, the PC Engine was much stronger, but the Mega Drive crept up on it in the later years. 3.5 million Megadrives, 3.9 million PC Engines and another million Duos seems very believable to me based on availability in Japan.
Also, remember that if your numbers are right, it's 3.5 million Genesises versus ~4.8 million Turbos, if 50% of that 1.9 million CD systems were Duo/R/RX models, as you say. That's a fair gap. What about the Sega CD and 32X, though? Are they included in that number, and how did they sell?
It is a little surprising that it apparently was that close, though. I also have always heard of how the Genesis finished far behind the Turbo in Japan, and 3.5 (maybe + CD and 32X) vs. ~5 million isn't as much of a gap as I would have thought. I mean, the PCE was the leading-selling system for a few years in the late '80s... but I guess the market was smaller then. And sure, it'd make sense that the Genesis would start selling better in the '90s as its game library improved, while the Turbo seems to have done best there in the late '80s.
Still though, I'm surprised that it's that close. Maybe NEC's switchover to CDs really did hurt them? I mean, with 4.8 million HuCard systems vs. 1.9 million CD systems, there were a lot more card systems out there... but the HuCard releases died out in 1993, for the most part. I know gameplay-wise there were good reasons to go over to CD, but it obviously limited the audience somewhat, though it really is a no-win situation -- do you help the original cartridge system more at the cost of the addon, or do you help that addon and hurt the original system? That generation Sega ended up doing more of the former, and NEC the latter. That probably caused issues for both of them, as Sega hurt its addons while NEC hurt its original system. Maybe Sega was hurt more, since the 32X debacle really hurt them badly while NEC's biggest problems in Japan were probably more about the PC-FX than the PCE/CD/SuperGrafx... but that's probably debatable.
The lesson really is that both Sega and NEC released too much hardware that generation. Keep things simpler, like Nintendo did, and it pays off... you split your market less!
You also can't really say much by comparing import demand for the systems, except that the Genesis was more popular in the US than Japan, and the PCE was more popular in Japan than the US. Not to mention, many Mega Drive games are region locked in a way that can't be defeated with a simple cart-port mod or a converter.
True.
You also got to consider Taiwan, Hong Kong and unofficially china as well as licensed ver of pc engine in korea contributing a million here and there, as well as few tens of thousands unofficially imported to European countries
I would be shocked if sales in all regions other than the US/Canada and Japan exceeded even half a million. I wouldn't be surprised if it's not even 100k. The Korean system is incredibly hard to come by. I mean, systems that sold in the 50-100k region (PC-FX, Supergrafx, Playdia) are far, far easier to locate.
Yeah, those 'other' regions were very small sales-wise. They didn't add up to much at all for any platform.
Regardless of the tastes of their readership, if there is any media source in Japan that was in a good position to get an accurate number from Hudson/NEC, it was famitsu. I can't find which issue it was, but apparently the figure comes from an issue published during the mid 90s.
Where did lukester get the figure for 1 million copies of TMII? I'm searching in Japanese and found an interesting summary:
Game-sales ranking website m-create.com says 158,620.
The game's director himself said 200,000.
Hudson said 300,000.
Hudson also announced later that the total sales of all Tengai series games combined is 2.2 million.
By the way, the number 5 game in that famitsu reader poll is an interactive novel called Machi. You know how many that apparently sold? 120,000.
This sounds like the answer there to me, TMII didn't sell nearly a million copies.