Will we see prices level out?

[Azzurri]

Prices right now seem to be crazy high, and this is not just Turbografx stuff, but SNES, Sega Saturn, and other retro consoles.  Even the stuff that isn't 'rare' is double or even more than it was a couple years back.

Do you guys think the prices will eventually level out, once resellers move out and the gouging stops?  Or are we in for these prices for the foreseeable future?

Part of me thinks it's here to stay since these games are not getting any newer, and over the years people lose stuff or it breaks.

Anyways, what say you?

[tbone3969]

I think that these prices are here to stay.  There will always be the slight variations throughout the year (lower prices in the summer and higher prices just before Xmas) but the overall slow creep up will continue for 10 - 20 years.  After that I am not sure.  There are a number of factors that worry me with Bit Rot being the number one.  After 20 yrs. most CDs and a high percentage of carts will start to become unplayable.  Many of my collecting friends have varying thoughts on how this will effect value.  I personally think that original discs, carts, and manuals will hold their value even if the game itself is unplayable.  Other factors to consider is the demographic age of the collectors.  Once the 80s and 90s children start retiring and dying will the prices drop?  An example if this would be the first car, the Ford Model T.  This was highly collectible and reached soaring prices but when all the collectors that grew up with it died off the price and desire for these cars dropped significantly.  With kids today being obsessed with video games just like in the 80s and 90s I think there will be a second, third, and fourth generation of collectors to come but I could be wrong.  Again many of my friends have different opinions on this.

[Black Tiger]

When I clicked on this I honestly thought that this was the last thread like this with the identical title. I was curious to see what it would have been bumped with.

[Otaking]

I started a thread asking a similar question 
http://www.pcenginefx.com/forums/index.php?topic=16341.0

[Azzurri]

I started a thread asking a similar question 
http://www.pcenginefx.com/forums/index.php?topic=16341.0

Didn't want to bump a old topic, and didn't see it, lol.

[Necromancer]

After 20 yrs. most CDs and a high percentage of carts will start to become unplayable.

Upon what empirical evidence do you base this belief?  There are game cartridges that are already 20 years older than 16-bit game carts and music CDs at least 10 years older than 16-bit game CDs, yet very few of 'em have failed.

When I clicked on this I honestly thought that this was the last thread like this with the identical title. I was curious to see what it would have been bumped with.

Heh, me too.  Looking at old threads is for suckers! 

[Azzurri]

After 20 yrs. most CDs and a high percentage of carts will start to become unplayable.

Upon what empirical evidence do you base this belief?  There are game cartridges that are already 20 years older than 16-bit game carts and music CDs at least 10 years older than 16-bit game CDs, yet very few of 'em have failed.

When I clicked on this I honestly thought that this was the last thread like this with the identical title. I was curious to see what it would have been bumped with.

Heh, me too.  Looking at old threads is for suckers! 

I have never had an old CD or cart base game fail on me after years of use.

[toymachine78]

I'm not sure how susceptible carts are to "bit rot". Last winter I sold off my 7800 and all the games I had for it. Many which were 2600 games that were bought with the release of the 2600. So these were pretty damn old games, ~34yo. On top of that, they were stored in my parents attic for 20 years, where summer temps reach 100+ on a daily basis with high humidity, and 30-40 in the winter. I pulled everything out and hooked it up, and all of it played just fine.

Disks are another issue. But I think that laser rot is greatly exaggerated too. My original CDs from late 80's still play great, and those things have been through a lot!

[tbone3969]

I am no Bit Rot expert but I do know nothing last forever and Bit Rot is real.  I have come across about a dozen bit rotted discs in my lifetime.  I have only found 1 cart however.  All I am saying is that 20, 30, 40 years from now I believe a high percentage of CDs will have bit rot.  The early released CDs of the late 80s/early 90s are the most susceptible. 

Again I am no expert but I have done some research online and have talked to many of my collecting friends about this.  Google it for yourself. 

Bit Rot is inevitable and will happen to all media at some point.  It's just a matter of when it will happen.

[EvilEvoIX]

I think once our generation gets older their will be a crash.  Technology is getting better and better and pretty soon people will just want to play the games via Emulation completely, I can't see people paying big bucks for ever on this stuff there has to be a crash except for the super rare stuff like the Gold NES Wold Champions Cart and so on.

The problem is once the crash does happen it'll take down all resellers and the sellers market almost entirely so finding games will be much harder.

[tbone3969]

Here is just one of many bit rot discussions on the web

http://forum.digitpress.com/forum/showthread.php?149968-Bit-Rot-Disc-Rot-amp-Data-Loss-An-insightful-look-into-Video-Game-Collecting

[johnnymad]

The problem is once the crash does happen it'll take down all resellers and the sellers market almost entirely so finding games will be much harder.

Think it might be easier for the ones of us that are out there hunting for the games in the wild. Resellers will be less likely to pick things up if they don't think they can make a profit. Bring on the crash!

[Necromancer]

I am no Bit Rot expert but I do know nothing last forever and Bit Rot is real.

I didn't say disc rot isn't real, as it's a given that nothing will last indefinitely.  I was questioning how you came up with a magic number of 20 years, especially when applied to carts.

[xelement5x]

Bit rot (and bronzing) as a process is extremely rare in most commercially produced stuff.  Most things that have it are laserdiscs and some very select CDs pressed by a few manufacturers early in the life of the CD. 

What many people see and attribute to bit rot nowadays are just poorly handled discs that have damage to the top surface.  In my experience, there are lots of Sega CD and Saturn games have a very thin screenprint on the top so they damage quite easily over time if they aren't handled properly.  Properly taken care of I see no problem with most discs lasting at least 80 years if not more. 

I think the bigger problem in the future will be getting the appropriate lasers/lens for original consoles.  Already sourcing them is a problem and replacement are not getting any cheaper as no one is making more and stocks sell out over time.

[BlueBMW]

I've got a lot of very old floppy disks and am still amazed how few have failed.  I've got a hundred or so 5.25" disks for my old Atari 800 and I think maybe one of them has actually stopped reading (poor frogger )  Considering those disks are over 30 years old now I find it pretty impressive!