It really does feel like groundhogs day with this topic, but here goes nothing. . .
I think a more realistic scenario is that the market just corrects itself - it gets expensive to a point where merchants can't sell anything and it naturally corrects.
I 100% agree. All markets and commodities, especially those driven by heavy speculation and high turnover (e.g. quickly flipping games for profit) are subject to market rises, drops, and corrections. Re-sellers can only raise prices so far before they price their buyers out. Other than a very very very small number of goods that are purchased for their "collectible" value, most items purchased for the purpose of collecting do not maintain an upward trajectory in their value.
I can't see people paying big bucks for ever on this stuff there has to be a crash except for the super rare stuff like the Gold NES Wold Champions Cart and so on.
People are definitely not going to be paying top dollar for classic games forever. Most of you current game collectors fall into three distinct categories:
(1) Guys and gals who are original owners of their systems, who never stopped picking up games for said systems when most stores and video game shops were selling off their old stock or selling used games for cheap. Most of these individuals are appalled by the current prices of their beloved games and would never pay $5000 for a copy of *
insert your favorite rare title here*
(2) Younger Gen-X and older Millennials, who now have some level of disposable income, and they want their old childhood toys and systems back. These folks typically aren't interested in your *
insert your favorite rare title here* and mainly just want their NES with Mario, Duckhunt, Zelda, or whatever games tug at their nostalgia boner. Some of these more deep pocketed individuals might get caught up in the collectard game, but most won't because, quite frankly, they probably don't give a rats dick about some weird looking game called Magical Chase thats going to set them back 5K.
(3) Last, and certainly not least, you have your weird smelly, sticky, pee-drinking collectards. These are the people (who am I kidding; they're all single young males with little to no dating prospects) who will spend any amount of money on any mint copy of *
insert your favorite rare title here* in order to have it gloriously displayed on their wall and far away from that no-good system that might make their mint copy of "Magical Chase at Dinosaur Peak World Championships Saga" less valuable.
Long analysis short, groups 1 and 2 don't really give a shit because they still have their childhood games or they've purchased back the ones they had. Group 3 will continue to speculate and flip away until they price themselves out of their own market. And from there, they'll most likely sell of their collection to jump onto the next popular system to collect for.
And you're definitely right about Nintendo World Championships. That's one game I actually except to maintain an upward trajectory in value.
