GREAT news, you guys.
Remember this?
3. Take subtitled AVI and convert it with MPCONV2. This is a program included with the PC-FXGA GMAKER development kit that encodes AVIs to MIX, which is a format the PC-FX's HuC6271 video playback chip can understand.
...you can tell it to encode at certain "Quality" settings which don't have ceilings. Quality=0 effectively tells it to use as much data as it could want, and Quality=1, 2, 3 etc. step that amount down by about 10% each successively.
Guess what? For 13 of the game's 16 FMVs, encoding at Quality=0 yields files that actually work on real hardware!
The fact that the buffer can handle some of the data rate spikes blows my mind, but I've tested multiple burns in multiple playthroughs, and there's been no variation in the playback at all.
The three FMVs that don't work are actually the first three in the game: the opening cinema, the theme song cinema, and the pre-stage 1 cinema. However, these also work just fine if we encode them with very high data rate ceilings (330KB/s, 340KB/s, and 355KB/s, respectively). These look great, and the difference between them and Quality=0 encodings is negligable.
Of course, I'll also want to test on other systems just to make sure that they can handle these extreme data rate spikes.
As a matter of fact, Mednafen does not deal with these accurately. I'll be getting in touch with the author soon about this. Basically, Mednafen is simulating the drive speed limits, but it's underrunning the buffer and failing at points that a real system doesn't.
The good news there is that Mednafen contains a setting that allows you to raise the speed of the virtual PC-FX drive, and if you do so, the problem goes away.