Both formats may stick around. If enough dual format players can be released. I wouldn't mind that.
As it is now, though the sales numbers are currently in blu-rays favour, I have to give HD-DVD the edge.
Many folks rememebr Beta, Mini Disk, etc. Many of my family owned a Beta machine. While they liked the format, no one is too keen on getting stuck with Beta again (I didn't use a VHS machine 'til 1990 or so). I recall the rush to buy blank Beta tapes when they were being cleared out in the late 80's. I'm sure there are others who have had similar experiences with Beta, and may be more likely to look away from Sony this round.
Piracy can help. Always adds another "pro" to the format for the nerdy types, such as myself.
Plus, if pornography prefers HD-DVD over Blu-Ray....