What PCE/TG16 games do you think will be the rarest titles in 10 years time?

[Otaking]

I think like alot of forum members I've built up and then sold so many game collections over the last 20 years that I've lost count. I got to thinking about all the games I've owned over the years that I had no idea would become rare and valuable in the future just for one example in the past I've owned multiple copies of the US Dynastic Hero and only recently found out it was now selling for big money.

So whats your predictions for the future rare valuable PCE/TG16 games? 

my current thoughts are on the games that had a more limited pressing such as Sylphia.

[Black Tiger]

Sylphia is one of the games that I think will come back down in price after people realize that it's not so rare. Up until the price got fixed, it was always available to buy and was $40 or less.

[blueraven]

Eventually Keith Courage will be worth billions.

Seriously?

I think that anything with a box and instructions will be even more of a rarity. People will start making Hu-card sleeves out of shower curtains, modifying Nintendo controllers to work on the PCE, and the white/black CD/Hu-Card cases will become a commodity. Power supplies could sell for over $80. Oh wait; that's happening now  

Also, if the system benefits from another plug in a movie (I.E. Enemy of the State with the Fresh Prince Will Smith and Gene Hackman), we could see the price of Bonk 1 hit $50.

PC Engine pressings of popular upgraded franchises like Double Dragon II, Adventure Island, and Super Ghosts & Goblins) will be highly sought after and achieve "Rare" status. Whereas they currently sell for $25-$75, they will achieve Dracula X ($100-150+) or maybe Magical Chase ($300-Astronomical) prices.

Rarest games? The rares will stay the same, and the prices will be 2.5x higher than now.

IMHO  

[Sinistron]

As far as American games go- Soldier Blade's been steadily climbing up in price.

[Tatsujin]

in 10 years from now, the amount of games will get smaller (defective, lost, etc.). if the collectors community is still alive and healthy then, most of the games will climb up in prices. those who are already expensive, will be even more expensive or at least +/-keep its price level. others will climb up faster or slower. and some few of them will always be able to get for a literally nuthin'.

but who knows what will be in 10 years from now? there are so many factors which biases prices, rarity and collectors behavior.

[Necromancer]

I'm with Tats - the titles that are currently expensive will remain expensive.  They're more than a decade old and their comparative rarity and desirability have already been established, so I don't see any cheap titles skyrocketing in value or vice versa.  Sadly, I think the time has passed for someone to discover a few crates of Dynastic Hero or Magical Chase in a dark corner of a warehouse (a la Circus Lido).

[Mathius]

I'm with Tats - the titles that are currently expensive will remain expensive.  They're more than a decade old and their comparative rarity and desirability have already been established, so I don't see any cheap titles skyrocketing in value or vice versa.  Sadly, I think the time has passed for someone to discover a few crates of Dynastic Hero or Magical Chase in a dark corner of a warehouse (a la Circus Lido).

That and Cosmic Fantasy 2 and Exile. They can plague a Turbografx search on eBay. Wish you could filter them out along with KLAX also

[bust3dstr8]

The same games that are rare now, just a little bit more so because of what Sujin said.

[Arkhan]

I think in 10 years alot of games will be rare given the kinda retards holding onto copies on ebay....

as for RAREST, whatever is rare now, will just become rarer.

[guyjin]

Deep Blue, since people like destroying their copies.

[Otaking]

Sylphia is one of the games that I think will come back down in price after people realize that it's not so rare. Up until the price got fixed, it was always available to buy and was $40 or less.

I'm not so sure, I waited ages for one to turn up on either Yahoo.jp or Ebay and none ever did, I've seen all the other rare games but not a single Sylphia.
Then I thought I'd wait untill I next go to Japan and pick one up then but then I heard the price in Japan had started rocketing (also confirmed by Tatsujin).
I read that Sylphia had a limited print run and I can only guess that now all the copies have ended up in the hands of collectors who aren't selling so the demand has outstripped supply.

I just tried to find a little article I'd read about how Sylphia had become rare and expensive in Japan over the last year or so but can't find it again now.

[Black Tiger]

I'm not so sure, I waited ages for one to turn up on either Yahoo.jp or Ebay and none ever did, I've seen all the other rare games but not a single Sylphia.
Then I thought I'd wait untill I next go to Japan and pick one up then but then I heard the price in Japan had started rocketing (also confirmed by Tatsujin).
I read that Sylphia had a limited print run and I can only guess that now all the copies have ended up in the hands of collectors who aren't selling so the demand has outstripped supply.

I just tried to find a little article I'd read about how Sylphia had become rare and expensive in Japan over the last year or so but can't find it again now.

There are 3 up on eBay right now. I guess it's entirely possible that for over 10 years I was one of the only people with any interest in the game. But even games that people don't like but are rare were selling for ridiculous collector prices before that. The market is always fluctuating and recently Sylphia has jumped up in price with collectors, likely due to an increase in the number of PCE collectors, especially particular ones. Just as non-rare U.S. Turbo stuff goes for an arm and a leg because of particular collectors.

Since it's now priced out of the range that any real PCE player would pay, it's simply a commodity. Although collectors who collect just for the sake of collecting are the problem, these trends always die down after a while and there are always people quitting or getting tired of it. Especially once the number of real PCE collectors from the generation who grew up with the games starts to wane, there'll likely be a dip in overall prices.

Thanks to modern technology, it becomes easier everyday to buy, sell and learn about games, as well as so many former exclusives to get re-released in various forms. So the games themselves are only becoming more available, even if there are only so many copies published in the PCE format. De-mystifying many "rare" games often helps depreciate their value.

I've seen radical shifts for almost every PCE game over the years and I wouldn't be surprised by anything in the future. But for years I saw few available copies of games like Sapphire, Renny Blaster, Fausette Amour, Kaze Kiri, etc... but there were always copies of Sylphia everywhere and there still are. It's not like a bunch got destroyed or anything. The only thing that's changed is what people charge for them, just like U.S. Turbo stuff.

[bust3dstr8]

There was a Sylphia on Ebay a about a year ago that listed at $160. Every week it got relisted for $10
less until it sold for $120.

[Otaking]

Sapphire, Renny Blaster, Fausette Amour, Kaze Kiri, etc...

I see all these titles very regularly on Yahoo.jp but haven't seen a single Sylphia. (not saying there's never ever been one on Yahoo.jp lol, just in last six months or so since i've been searching it)

There are 3 up on eBay right now

yeh I've seen those, I wasn't including 'buy it nows' from the likes of http://myworld.ebay.co.uk/16-bit/, I meant there's been no ebay auctions where there's a possibility of it ending at a sane price, if there was I would of bid on it, I was waiting for a year, maybe I've just been really unlucky??

 

[Black Tiger]

I see all these titles very regularly on Yahoo.jp but haven't seen a single Sylphia. (not saying there's never ever been one on Yahoo.jp lol, just in last six months or so since i've been searching it)

All that means is that people haven not been listing Sylphia for sale on yahoo.jp. There are many rare games that I see sold locally all the time, but I have only ever purchased one or two copies of Sylphia locally. All that means is that I haven not found many for sale in this area.

yeh I've seen those, I wasn't including 'buy it nows' from the likes of http://myworld.ebay.co.uk/16-bit/, I meant there's been no ebay auctions where there's a possibility of it ending at a sane price, if there was I would of bid on it, I was waiting for a year, maybe I've just been really unlucky??

Same deal with un-rare Turbo games like Ys III. What people ask for games, today more than ever, has nothing to do with how rare or valuable they are. All they need is one person with deep pockets to eventually misinterpret a gameès value, say by judging the number of copies available online without Buy-It-Now or the average asking price, etc... and bite. In the long run these crooked sellers think that they are making a lot of money manipulating the market, even though they are lucky to break even in the end with all the listing fees. And some people further get fooled into believing hyped values and rarity when they occasionally see a single completed overpriced auction, while ignoring all the dirt cheap completed ones.

One of the big problems right now is that there are so many people unfamiliar with gaming and game collecting who are jumping in to make a quick buck. Aside from manipulating or controlling the market, so many of these people are so clueless that they find the highest sold or asking price for a new or mint complete item and then advertise their loose, incomplete, dirty and worn copy for the same price or higher. The same thing happened with other collectible fads. These things spin out of control when other clueless sellers and buyers look at things the same way. Many people are even foolish enough to buy a worn used copy of a game for $5 less than retail at EB and Gamestop type stores, so it is not surprising what happens when these people decide to jump into retro gaming with very little knowledge.

Sylphia is pretty cool, but there are so many other great games out there and it is not worth nearly as much as what it sells for. Again, if this is the last game you need to complete a PC Engine collection then so be it. Otherwise there are so many other better PCE games that you could buy 5 - 10 of for the price of Sylphia. As long as you are speculating though I guess it does not really matter, since the value you are basing games on is what other people are willing pay.