Android is going to take it. They are already overtaking Apple in sales. The real question is whether or not Android will overtake RIM/Blackberry. Blackberry is pretty entrenched in the business/government world and I'm not just talking up Blackberry because it's Canadian. heh. There's nothing wrong with the iphone...well with the iphone 3GS at least...but Apple did take a one-two hit with all the Android phones coming out recently, along with their technical difficulties regarding the iphone 4. Even Apple fanboys weren't impressed with Steve Jobs' initial comments about the antenna and screen issues.
I read an article before where the author made a Star Wars reference to define Apple's biggest battles. The first was "Attack of the PC clones" and the second being "Attack of the Droids". Apple is not going to be able to withstand all the different options and choices that all the other Android phones are offering. For example, the Samsung Galaxy just came out and has been getting very high praise, and of course there's the HTC EVO and HD2 phones. Android's biggest pro is Apple's biggest con: Openness. For example, unless you don't care about updating your iphone you're stuck with iTunes, which is has become a bloated storefront for Apple instead of a simple music player. Jobs can whine all he wants about Flash, but right or wrong (and I think he's mostly wrong) he should let the consumer decide. You don't realize how much a part of teh internetz Flash is until you can't access it. For me, the lack of Flash is a deal breaker. That said there are many other reasons I would go with Android. I can't comment on what programming for Flash is like, but I'm sure Rove has a few things to say about that. lol
All that said, Apple has its niche market and that's not going anywhere.
As for Rove's statement that you if you buy a PC you only get Windows, well if you a buy a Mac you only get OSX. But in reality you can load linux, Chrome, or Windows on your PC, and you can load Windows on a Mac. Also, I've read online on ways of loading Leopard on your PC by setting your BIOS correctly - Macs are, afterall, just PCs running on an Apple operating system. There are no significant hardware differences anymore now that Apple went to Intel processors. Also, I think Microsoft has pulled up their socks with Windows7. It's a great OS and runs smoother and faster than XP on my current computer. There are lots of new features that I already wouldn't want to go without. Apple may have had a good argument a few years ago when Vista (though the Vista problems were VERY overblown) came out to convince consumers to switch to Apple, but with the release of Windows7 it's a completely different game.
I also don't quite agree that all new smart phones are just iphone clones. RIM/Blackberry was the phone that revolutionized the mobile phone industry and Apple just did their own thing with the smartphone, albeit in a unique way. The HTC EVO looks completely different than an iphone and has unique features compared to the iphone. I mean, I guess they all have a screen and are rectangular in shape, but I wouldn't call them clones. There's no doubt that Apple was very influencial with the release of the first iphone.
Anyway, I'm really rambling here so I'll wrap it up. lol. As it stands now in the US market, Apple is already in 3rd place behind Android (2nd) and RIM, which is in 1st place. Worldwide Symbian is in the lead by a longshot. Windows Mobile and Apple are pretty much in the same position and I don't really see that changing too much in the near future.